Am I on track to retire?

Build your retirement plan and see how it holds up in every market in history.

Try it with a sample plan. No account needed for the demo.

One line per case: a sample plan started in each year since 1871.

Three minutes to a first answer

It starts with your paycheck

Retire Plan opens with a short interview in five parts: you, your income, your savings, your spending and the answer. Give it your age, your state and your pay. It works out your federal tax, your payroll tax and your state tax from the 2026 tables, so you never have to guess at a tax rate. Your take-home shows under your pay as you type, and the bar at the top shows the age you could retire at so far. At the end you get that age and its success rate: the share of historical cases where a plan like yours never ran out.

The interview step for your pay: 10 percent into the 401K and a 4 percent employer match, with the take-home per month worked out under it, split into gross pay, 401K, federal tax, Social Security and Medicare, and state tax. A bar at the top reads So far: retire at 67.
Your take-home builds as you type, and the age at the top moves with it.
The last step of the interview. It reads You could retire at 67, with a success rate of 100 percent across every year of market history since 1871, and three changes to try: save 2 percent more of pay, spend $500 per month less, start Social Security at 70.
The answer: an age, its success rate and three changes to try.

With a partner, each of you gets your own pay step with your own contribution limits, and the two are combined into one household.

Tick what applies to you: a rental property, a military or federal job, a pension, semi-retirement, other income. Only those questions come up.

You can go back to any step, and nothing is locked. Later, Change my answers in the plan menu opens the interview again.

Semi-retirement

Plan a semi-retirement

Work part-time for a few years before you retire completely. Pick the age you want to semi-retire, and Retire Plan works out how much the part-time work needs to pay, and for how long.

The Coast FIRE and Barista FIRE buttons fill in the pay for you.

Health insurance before 65 is not included. Part-time jobs often come without it, so find out what it would cost you before you count on it.

The last question of the setup with semi-retirement turned on and Barista FIRE picked. It reads semi-retire 59, retire 72: 13 part-time years at $34K a year, and 100 percent of historical cases never ran out. Sliders set the withdrawal rate, the semi-retirement age, the part-time pay and the part-time years, and a note says health insurance before 65 is not included.

Backtest

Every case since 1871

Your plan is run once for a person who started it in 1871, again for 1872, and so on through the last window the data allows. Each case uses the returns and inflation of those years as they happened: the 1929 crash, the 1970s inflation, the 1966 retiree who watched a flat market eat a portfolio that looked comfortable on paper.

The headline is the share of those cases that never ran out of money. Below it you can see which ones failed and at what age, and switch the chart between individual paths and a heat map of where most outcomes landed.

A result reading 100 percent of 106 historical cases never ran out of money, above a chart of one balance line per case

The full plan

Change one input and watch everything move

The full planner: inputs on the left, a backtest chart, account balances, income by source, Monte Carlo runs and ending balances

Salary, contributions, employer match, the split between stocks and bonds, the age you claim Social Security, a pension, a taxable brokerage account. Every input recomputes the backtest and a thousand Monte Carlo runs in well under a second, so trying an idea costs nothing.

Account balances over time, stacked by 401K and IRA, with dotted markers at retirement, Social Security and the start of required withdrawals
Balances by account. Markers show the dates that change them.
A thousand Monte Carlo runs drawn as a blue fan around a median line, on a log scale
Monte Carlo draws a thousand runs, sampled from history in blocks of five years.

Taxes and IRS rules

Contribution limits, penalties and required withdrawals

Contribution limits for 2026, with the catch-ups at 50 and at 60. The 10 percent penalty on money drawn before 59 and a half, and the rule of 55 that waives it on a 401K. Required minimum distributions from 73 or 75, using the IRS table, with the part you do not spend saved rather than counted as income you can spend.

State income tax uses each state’s own brackets and rules, including which states leave Social Security alone and which exempt retirement withdrawals. Each rule has a switch, so you can see what it costs you.

Income by source over time, with markers for retirement, Social Security and the year required minimum distributions begin

Where the numbers come from

You can check every input to the model

Here is every source the model uses, how it was checked, and what it leaves out. See how accurate Retire Plan is, with the sums done by hand next to its answers.

Data sources and model checks
Stock returns Robert Shiller’s monthly S&P composite series with dividends, 1871 to 2026, compounded month by month into calendar years.
Bond returns Worked out from the yield curve. A 10-year Treasury is bought at January’s yield and sold a year later as a 9-year bond at the next January’s yield. Many calculators use the yield itself, which understates 1982 by about 15 points.
Inflation Each backtest window uses the CPI recorded for those years, rather than one assumed rate.
Tax tables 2026 federal brackets and deductions, the IRS worksheet for taxing Social Security, the 0, 15 and 20 percent bands for capital gains, Social Security and Medicare tax with the $184,500 wage base, and each state’s own brackets and retirement rules.
Outside checks Retire Plan matches 45 of 55 official IRS, Social Security and state worked examples exactly, and none of the other 10 is a mistake in Retire Plan. Federal tax matches the PolicyEngine tax calculator to the dollar in 121 of 122 households. See every check and the sums done by hand.
Cross-check Stock and bond series correlate 0.97 and 0.96 with Aswath Damodaran’s independent annual series over 1928 to 2025.
Against the literature On the Trinity study’s own 41 cases, a 4 percent withdrawal over 30 years at 75/25 lasts in 97.6 percent of them in Retire Plan, and the study reports 98 percent. The one case that ran out started in 1966.
Not modeled Health insurance and other healthcare costs before Medicare, including during semi-retirement, Medicare premiums, long-term care, the years after a spouse dies, Roth conversions, the alternative minimum tax, and city income taxes.

How accurate is Retire Plan? Retire Plan is checked against official IRS, Social Security and state examples, an outside tax calculator and published research.

Your data

Where your plan is kept

The demo stores nothing. It runs on a sample plan, and nothing you change there is written down anywhere.

An account saves your plans on our server, encrypted in transit and at rest, so you can open the same plan on a laptop and on a phone.

You can export a plan as a file at any time, and you can delete your account, with every plan in it, from the account page.

What it costs

You buy it once

One-time prices
What you get One-time price
Planner with your own numbers, saved plans $18
What-if tool, added to the planner $20
PDF report, added to the planner. Buy once, build as many as you want. $20
What-if and PDF report together, added to the planner $30
Full bundle: the planner, What-if and PDF report $50

The Report puts your retirement plan in one PDF, made for you and kept in your account. See a sample report.

You pay once for each part, and there is no subscription. Updates to the parts you own are included. New features may be sold on their own. The demo is not limited by time; it uses sample plans instead of yours.

Prices in US dollars. Tax is added at checkout where it applies.

On Instagram

One plan, one chart at a time

Every post runs a real plan through the planner and shows what history did to it. Follow @retireplanapp for the next one.

Post: the same savings plan either works or runs out, depending on when you were born, over a chart of one line per case Post: leave your job at 55 and the planner knows you can draw the 401K without the penalty Post: start this plan at 25 and it passes on $5.76M, start it at 35 and $1.84M, over a chart comparing the two

Follow @retireplanapp

See it run on a sample plan

The demo takes about three minutes and needs no sign-up.

Open the demo

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